Delaying the net-zero emissions target condemns the world to centuries of increasingly intense, severe, and progressively worse heat waves, scientists warn.
New research has revealed that dangerously intense and prolonged heat waves will become increasingly common if progress toward carbon neutrality continues to stagnate. The study finds that the longer the world takes to achieve carbon neutrality, the more severe these extreme heat events will become.
Published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate and cited by ScienceDaily, the study is based on climate models conducted by scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and CSIRO. Using large-scale simulations on supercomputers, the team examined how heat waves might evolve over the next 1,000 years, when global emissions finally reach zero.
Throughout the 1,000-year simulations, most regions showed no signs of returning to pre-industrial heatwave conditions. Instead, heatwaves remained high for at least a millennium. In some cases, when negative energy balance was reached in 2050 or later, heatwaves became even more severe over time.
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The researchers also found that warming in the Southern Ocean may continue to intensify heatwaves for centuries, even after carbon neutrality is achieved.
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Written by: Eduardo Quive
